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WARM 0
COOLING 25
COLD 50
FROZEN 75
100
Fed Funds
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10-Year Yield
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2s10s Spread
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VIX
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Why Rates Are Stuck
Fed Funds Anchor
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10-Year Benchmark
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Curve Steepness (2s10s)
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Volatility Regime (VIX)
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Yield Curve Shape
Treasury rates across maturities -- today vs 30 days ago
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Key Levels to Watch
Signals that would change the current rate regime
2s10s Spread (2Y vs 10Y)
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3M/10Y Spread (Bills vs Bonds)
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Freeze Score Trend
90-day composite score timeline
Freeze Score Model
The freeze score (0-100) is a weighted composite of four dimensions measuring how "frozen" the rate environment is. A frozen environment means the Fed is holding steady, the curve is flat or inverted, spreads are compressed, and volatility discourages repositioning. Data sources: Alva SDK macro partition covering 3M-30Y Treasuries, CBOE VIX, and Fed Funds effective rate. Updated weekly (Monday before US open).
Fed Funds Anchor (30%)
Gap between effective Fed Funds rate and the 2Y yield. Wider gap = more cuts priced = warming signal.
Curve Shape (25%)
2s10s and 3M/10Y spreads. Inversion = frozen. Steep normalization = warming. Flat = cold but stable.
Spread Momentum (25%)
30-day rate-of-change in key spreads. Compressing = frozen. Expanding = warming.
Volatility Regime (20%)
VIX level and 10-day trend. Elevated/rising VIX adds freeze. Low/falling VIX = warming.
Zones: Frozen (75-100) = rates locked, duration risk high. Cold (50-74) = holding but not hardening. Cooling (25-49) = market pricing cuts, duration getting attractive. Warm (0-24) = active easing, risk-on, duration rally underway.
Are Rates Frozen Right Now? -- Powered by Alva SDK macro data partition
Treasury rates, Federal Funds, VIX. Updated weekly. Not financial advice.
Treasury rates, Federal Funds, VIX. Updated weekly. Not financial advice.